Tuesday, August 22, 2006

Paul Hodes Pulls Even

A poll done by Anzalone Liszt Research for the Hodes campaign shows Bass at 43%, just one point ahead of Hodes' 42% - when people who are only leaning toward one candidate or the other are removed, Hodes and Bass are dead even at 40%.

At Swing State Project, DavidNYC highlights some key points, one in particular:

The absolutely amazing thing is that Bass has full name recognition - 94%. Hodes, meanwhile, is at just 27%. The only thing which can explain this is extreme voter dissastisfaction with incumbents and Republicans. Charlie Bass, of course, is both.

He also returns to the issue of sampling and partisan breakdown:

Turns out that registration in the 2nd CD is 30R-26D-44I - a four-point net GOP advantage. And these numbers are a couple of years old - if anything, I'd believe the GOP edge is a bit smaller now.

So remember that UNH poll we disected a while back? It had a partisan breakdown of 32R-23D-38I, a nine-point Republican edge. Clearly, that just doesn't reflect reality.

Anzalone Liszt's memo on the poll, available below Hodes' press release on it, notes that

Historically, this is a 50.3% Democratic performance district (John Kerry won here) and Republicans only have a four-point registration advantage over Democrats. The polling sample used in this survey also reflects a Republican registration advantage.

That and the other discussion of methodology in their memo suggest that this is a solid poll, one in which they did their best to find out the real lay of the land. As far as I can see, every single finding they came up with is positive for Hodes - in addition to the head-to-head matchup numbers, a majority of respondents said they wanted someone new elected, a majority gave negative job ratings to Congress and to Bush, a majority said the country is headed in the wrong direction, and confronted with a generic Democrat vs. Republican choice, they chose the Democrat by 50% to 29%. So this is definitely reason for us to celebrate, happy dance (or, as Yankee Doodler suggests, weeping with joy) and all.

Of course, we get this good news courtesy of a well-run, well-funded campaign. You can help them continue to be well-funded (that they may have the resources to continue to be well-run) by contributing to the campaign. And, as a reminder, tomorrow is the filing deadline, so it's especially good if you can give before then.


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