Thursday, September 21, 2006

About Polling: As I was saying...

From John DiStaso's Union Leader column:
Perhaps answering the Concord Monitor's recent poll showing Hodes trailing Bass, 55 to 30 percent, the DCCC has a poll by the Mellman Group of 400 2nd District voters that shows the race tied at 41 percent each. The poll shows George W. Bush's job approval rating at 30 percent in the district, and that 61 percent of voters believe the country is on the wrong track.
As you're weighing the reliability of this poll vs. that Monitor one, bear in mind that the DCCC would have been doing this poll to help them decide whether or not to add Hodes to the Red to Blue program. Adding a candidate to R2B is a substantial investment of finite resources. They would want to choose the strongest possible candidate to maximize their chances of retaking the House. Therefore, while this is a "partisan" poll, and was certainly released to counter the Monitor's poll, in doing the poll, the DCCC had every incentive to poll as carefully as possible to be sure they didn't end up wasting their money.

Now, about those Bass or National Republican Congressional Committee polls...

We know they're out there. The subscription-only Cook Report said at the beginning of the month that "Privately, Republicans say they have polling that shows Bass in good shape." Privately? They have good news and they don't want to share? Why do I doubt that news was as good as they wanted people to believe?


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