Tuesday, October 31, 2006

A Busy Day in NH-02 - And a Good One for Hodes

It's hard to even know where to start today. First off, there's a new poll from Majority Watch (click on the NH dot to see details) that shows Hodes in the lead with 50% to Bass' 47%. This poll has a low margin of error at +/- 3.11%, and has 988 respondents - a large number obtainable because it was an automated poll. Opinions differ on automated polls, but they don't seem to be much worse than other public polling. The details of the poll look especially good for Hodes, with his support firmer than Bass' and Democratic voter motivation higher than Republican.

I'm still not 100% sold on polling in general, but seeing a Hodes lead on the poll with the largest sample and lowest margin of error I've seen yet is nice.

Second, let's talk about the fact that the Cook Report changed NH-02 from "lean Republican" to "toss up." This is huge. As he lays out informally but cogently in this comment thread at Daily Kos, Charlie Cook is a careful prognosticator, and one who
decided many years ago to have a policy that is almost iron-clad, not to put un-indicted incumbents worse than Toss Up.
So toss up is the most Hodes-favorable category possible without Charlie Bass getting indicted for something. (Thanks to Yankee Doodler for the catch.)

Third, not only has the DCCC come close to matching the NRCC's buy on WMUR, I hear they've gone into the Boston tv market. Still waiting for an FEC filing on that to be able to give details, but it sounds pretty good. Piggybacking on that, the SEIU has added $23k to their earlier radio ad buy in support of Hodes - I heard the ad, which is about healthcare, today and it sounded effective.

Finally, there's a new sign up in Concord at least. Placed strategically next to signs for Republican incumbent Charlie Bass (which say, simply "BASS"), it says "He voted for torture." Oh, and there's an arrow pointing to the Bass sign.

The sign says it's paid for by "People Against Torture." The only information I can find about a group by that name is here, but that focuses on Kenya, so I'm not sure it's the same group. Notice, though, that the sign could be put next to the sign of any incumbent who had voted for a number of measures effectively allowing torture. It's kind of brilliant, really. Has anyone else seen these elsewhere in this district, or in other districts applied to other candidates?


Blogger Keener said...

I also saw a DCCC ad against Charlie on THe Situation Room on CNN, obviously a cable buy, but another indication of how wide they are going with the saturation here.

Flipped through the Pats game last night as well, and there was NOT from what I could see a heavy DCCC presence there, with most of the ads being the direct campaign buys (the Go Charlie! commercial against the BASS/BUSH commercial that opens with the TV set.

There was at least one appearance of the DCCC ad on the Pats game, but this is compared to the Hodes campaign ad showing up every break.

So I think they still have a bunch in the chamber, so to speak...

8:38 AM  
Blogger BrooklineProgressive said...

This sign also showed up this morning on Amherst st. in Nashua. Again, it was pointing to a Bass sign.

12:39 PM  
Blogger MissLaura said...

Thanks, Brookline Progressive. It's good to know the lay of the land like that.

Of course, lots of places they must be struggling even to find Bass signs to put them next to.

Keener, I need to watch more tv to try and see these things. Maybe tonight. Thanks for the report in the mean time.

12:44 PM  
Blogger Keener said...

well, it was pretty amusing, because I TiVO'd some of this stuff and then I'm fast-forwarding through the shows to the commercial breaks watching only those. A first for me.

6:42 PM  
Blogger jjmcs said...

I have been tracking many of the national races on the conservative website www.electionprojection.com and this morning - for the first time NH2 has shown up on the radar screen as a district that is leaning Republican. Prior to this it was solid Republican.

This trend is happening with a multitude of the national tracking sites. A very good sign.

9:00 AM  
Blogger BrooklineProgressive said...

The "Torture" sign in Nashua is gone already.

6:35 PM  
Blogger Milfordelphia said...

I read in the UL's Granite Status column today that the DCCC is planning to spend a total of $1.2 million going after Charlie in the final week. The same column also says that the ridiculously underfunded Carol Shea Porter is within 5 points of Bradley. So, shouldn't the DCCC maybe be throwing some of that cash towards Porter?

1:13 AM  
Blogger MissLaura said...

Obviously, being in the second district and a Hodes partisan, I'm pretty happy about the buy. And I don't know anything about what the DCCC's thinking about Shea-Porter is - or the degree to which she's reached out to them.

But, man, it would be great to see both NH seats go blue, and I certainly hope that the DCCC is taking a hard look at what's going on in the first district.

1:21 AM  

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