Sunday, October 15, 2006

Two Independent Polls - One Up, One Down

The Nashua Telegraph mentions two polls of NH-02. In one by the Becker Institute, Paul Hodes is up by 9, 48%-39%. In one by the American Research Group, Bass is up by 6, 48%-42%.

It's hard to know what to make of all these different numbers, especially without access to any of the internals. A few limited conclusions can be drawn.

It's great to see an independent poll showing Hodes in the lead, if only because no matter how carefully done and how much in the candidate's interest it is to have internal polls be as accurate as possible, any internal poll will always be reported with caveats, hower undeserved. So, for the doubters of the Hodes poll and the DCCC poll that showed the race within a point and tied, respectively, here you go.

According to the Telegraph's report on the Becker Institute poll
“This is by far the worst image recorded for Charlie Bass through 12 Becker Institute readings over the past seven years,’’ the poll summary said.
Whatever the strengths or weaknesses of their methodology, if it is at least consistent, that's a telling finding.

I do think it's significant that no poll in the past month, and only one since July, has shown Bass over 50%. That's been one of the few consistent things in recent polls, and being under 50% is a major sign of weakness in an incumbent, particularly one in a district trending away from his party.

My take on the big picture of all these polls - from the Hodes poll to the UNH poll to this Becker Institute poll - aggregated is that the race is close, and the momentum is with Hodes, who needs to continue to work as hard as he has been doing on name recognition, because these numbers are coming after a relatively short time of television advertising, and as some people are only starting to pay attention to the race.

In other words:

We have to keep fighting. All of us. Not just Paul. Not just the people paid to work for him. All of us, every Democrat or fed-up Independent or fed-up Republican in the district.

But, looking good.


Blogger -epm said...

Repeat after me: get out the vote, get out the vote, get out the vote...

The polling in NH-2 is interesting (unique?) in that there's such a swing from one poll to the next ostensibly reflecting the same point in time. Like you, I've no idea what to draw from this, but you're right to point out the only consistent data point. Charlie can't break 50%

From this I ask myself: "Are Charlie's supporters as enthusiastic about voting for him as Paul's are?" Participation in a telephone poll is one thing, but when it comes down to driving down to the polling station and waiting in line, which group is more motivated to make the effort? Let's make sure it Paul's people.

5:42 PM  
Blogger atomic tangerine said...

It's great to see Hodes poll ahead! All these different polls getting such different results are a little confusing, but having Hodes pull ahead of Bass in at least one poll is great.

2:22 AM  

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