Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Will Bass Get Bailed Out?

As I noted on Sunday, and GraniteProf elaborated on somewhat on Monday, the last several polls released have Charlie Bass below 50%, which is considered the danger line for an incumbent.

You might expect the national party to come to his aid, bail him out by attacking Paul Hodes. And it wouldn't be surprising if they do - after all, given the way New Hampshire has been trending Democratic over the past 10-15 years, once the Republicans lose this seat, it's not too likely they'll get it back for a good long time. So it would be in their interest to try to save the seat if they possibly can, rather than focusing on ones they'll be able to get back given a slightly more Republican-friendly national environment in 2 or 4 years.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has been spending a lot of money trying to help a lot of different Republican incumbents (warning: link takes a long time to load). For instance, Swing State Project reports today that the NRCC is putting $400,000 into Idaho's first district, which in 2004 went 70% for Bush. This is part of a pattern in which Republicans are playing defense in districts that shouldn't be remotely competitive, rather than the ones that, six months ago, you would have expected them to have to work to defend, never mind the pick-up opportunities you'd have figured they'd have.

So what does it mean when the NRCC doesn't spend in a district like NH-02, which should be competitive? Despite spending $21,000 to survey the second district back on August 21, the NRCC has not yet spent any money on advertising or mailing to help bail Bass out. They may yet - and if they do, it'll get dirty in a hurry - but so far, nothing. Maybe they didn't like what that survey told them. Have they given up on winning this one? We won't know until about November 6, but right now it seems like a significant possibility.

1 Comments:

Blogger -epm said...

First I think we're seeing the power of Dean's 50-state strategy. We changed the rules and did an end run around the Rebups in many, many races.

I also think it's time for the DCCC to start showing some love here in NH-2. We need some good ads that debunk the Indypendent Charlie myth.

9:57 AM  

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