Blue Granite

Visit Blue Hampshire

2006-11-22T01:32:00.000-05:00

I'm overdue in saying this, but, together with Keener and Yankee Doodler (who are now known as Mike and Dean), I have started a new soapblox community blog called Blue Hampshire.

Once you register there, you can not only participate in nested comment threads, but post your own diaries. Even though we've yet to do much to publicize it, there are already diaries being posted and lively discussions happening there.

All three of us are from NH-02, but we hope Blue Hampshire really can live up to its name and have coverage of the whole state, so if you're from NH-01 please come and let us know what's going on in your district.

Looking Ahead

2006-11-18T03:06:00.000-05:00

From the Journal News of the Lower Hudson Valley, New York:

As a musician who wrote and sang pop hits in the 1970s with the group Orleans, [NY-19 Representative-Elect John] Hall has also been scouting around for ways to express himself musically in the new Congress. He met fellow freshman Paul Hodes, D-N.H., who plays guitar, and suggested they form a group, called Hall and Hodes.

That would be a group I'd have to see.

In a way, I feel oddly like I've been transported back in time to the summer, when just writing about Charlie Bass occasionally got boring but there wasn't yet a lot of news to be had about Paul Hodes unless I went out and saw him myself. Back then, I was thrilled to find two paragraphs about Paul stopping into a new store in Concord and eating some cheese. Now, there's not much point in writing about Charlie Bass - he's pretty much just marking time - and while there's a little more news to be had about Paul Hodes, it's not much.

I can tell you that he voted for Steny Hoyer rather than Jack Murtha for Majority Leader, but since I think that the Majority Leader vote in general was kind of overblown as a news story, and since I had no strong opinion as between Hoyer and Murtha (honestly I didn't think either of them was particularly appealing), it doesn't seem worth much notice.

Mostly right now it's a waiting game. We know a new Congress is coming, but they're not in office yet, so there is little reporting to be done on them. I'll be keeping up with the news, and broadening my focus to include the presidential primary and more New Hampshire state politics, but right now is a bit of a trough as far as any of it goes. So bear with me and more will be happening soon, I promise.

Milford and the Margin of Victory

2006-11-13T14:00:00.000-05:00

This is me checking in on my earlier thoughts.

Today's Telegraph has an article about how Milford, and other traditionally Republican towns, were a key to Paul Hodes' victory or Charlie Bass' loss, depending how you look at it. Although Bass won Milford, and Pelham and Hollis and Amherst, he barely did so - by 28, 457, 48, 131. Those towns all gave him solid wins in 2004, and could have helped carry him along this year, but Republicans just didn't show up to vote.

Back in September, I wrote about the Milford Labor Day parade, focusing on how strikingly few people I saw visibly supporting Republicans there. I was hesitant to embrace anecdotal evidence like that, but it did give me some hope. No, Hodes didn't win Milford. That would have signaled a win of truly epic proportions. But he held his own, against expectations.

Victory Blogging

2006-11-08T01:45:00.000-05:00

I owe an apology: I've been useless when it came to providing news for the past several days. It just seemed more important to do the work of getting Paul Hodes elected, and while I don't at all want to downplay the importance of having available the kind of information that we have been able to provide here and at NH-02 Progressive and Yankee Doodler - because I do think it had an actual effect on this race in at least a few subtle ways - in the end, it came down to knocking on doors and calling people. And at the end of the day I just didn't have the energy for much else.

Friday I didn't do a whole lot. Helped clean the office, did some visibility at a football game.

Saturday 3 canvasses and some phonebanking.

Sunday 1 and a half canvasses and some phonebanking.

Monday 2 canvasses, some phonebanking, and a late-night lit drop.

Tuesday distributing signs to polling places, phonebanking, canvass, phonebanking. I've made no bones about my hatred of phonebanking, though unless you've known me for a decade or more you probably wouldn't quite get it. As a teenager, the trauma of calling to order something from a catalogue brought me to tears at least once. In college, I routinely got into fights with my housemates over who'd call to order pizza, because I sure wasn't making a phone call to a stranger. I will still spend a good long time looking around for a way to do something online rather than making a phonecall. And Patrick and Toby could tell you that I didn't always phonebank entirely cheerfully this campaign. But today, this was it. It just had to be done.

The canvass was as it grew dark, and we were literally running through the streets, going right up and squinting at mailboxes to see if this was the last house we needed, if this might make the difference. Then we got back and got back on the phones; we were phonebanking as results started coming in, pushing through calls until 15 minutes before the last polls closed, begging people to get out to vote right now because they could make the difference. We kept doing it even when numbers came in that looked good, because you never know how it will go.

And this time, it went right.

Other people got the great pictures of Paul, and I'm sure I'll take advantage of those when they become available. But here are a few of the staff letting the victory soak in.

Patrick and Luke. Patrick's first time as a field director and he won.

Toby and Bethel. Bethel was a summer intern and came back for about a week to help with election stuff. She and I did the late-night lit drop Monday and were hilarious even to ourselves, we were so nervous of being called out as suspicious for going up on people's porches in the dark.

Emily, Brooke, and Torey.

I told you Jane wasn't always so blurry.

Donkey got to come to the victory party.

Whole Lot Going On

2006-11-04T18:46:00.000-05:00

Yesterday felt like the calm before the storm at Paul Hodes' campaign headquarters. Today it does feel like the storm is starting, but not in a bad way.

I've done 3 canvasses and a little phonebanking. I'm a little tired. But it feels good - things are rolling here, with volunteers on all the phones and several canvasses going at a time just in Concord alone. And there are staff in several other locations, running more phonebanks and more canvasses.

The picture is last night at dinner at the Barley House in Concord - like I said, the calm before (though that's not to say that it wasn't a serious work day; we went to dinner around 9).

Thursday I diaried at Daily Kos about the new WMUR/UNH poll, which had Hodes leading by 8 points. That's a tracking poll, and last night's results had him up by 13. Waiting for tonight's results. The poll has a large margin of error and I'm assuming that overstates his lead, but it looks good. Meanwhile, the Concord Monitor has a poll that has Bass leading by 1%. I think even less of the Monitor poll than I think of the WMUR/UNH poll, though. Back in mid-September, their poll was a serious outlier, with Hodes down by 25 points. Seriously, Hodes has been catching up, but 24%? (To be clear, my distrust of the current poll is mostly founded on my distrust of the former - I'm too tired to have looked at this very closely.)

Keener's been providing pretty comprehensive coverage of the robocalls the NRCC is running to annoy voters. They start off sounding like they support Paul Hodes, and they come repeatedly. So anyone who hangs up early, before it turns into an attack on Paul, thinks the repeated, annoying calls are coming from his campaign. It's a clear suppression tactic. The Hodes campaign and the New Hampshire Democratic Party have done well getting some coverage showing this for the dirty trick that it is, but it's a continuing battle, and people have been calling the campaign office irate at the calls they think they're getting from us. (Although it is fun to tell them what's really going on and tell them to call the Bass campaign about it, or file a complaint with the attorney general.) Let everyone you know in the district that this is going on.

But in actual life, it's sort of a blur of, canvass partner shows up and I go out canvassing. Come in, breathe a few minutes, go out again, come in, breathe, make some phone calls, stop to quiver and moan about being tired. The internet was out here for most of the afternoon, which was an adventure. It felt like I was at the Lieberman campaign or something for a while there.

I think Patrick's look in this picture pretty much sums it up:

WMUR/UNH Poll Gives Hodes 8-Point Lead.

2006-11-03T00:13:00.000-05:00

All of the caveats that have applied to every other UNH poll apply - the sample size is slightly larger and the margin of error correspondingly lower, but it's still a small sample and a big MoE.

But yes, in this poll Paul Hodes leads Charlie Bass 45% to 37%, nearly reversing their positions in the September WMUR/UNH poll. The poll results are here (PDF).

Looking good. Now we just have to work our butts off for a few more days and hopefully we'll have a new member of Congress.

And speaking of working our butts off, you should be doing that if you're in the district. There will be non-stop phonebanking and canvassing pretty much until the polls close on Tuesday. Call 603 223 2006 or email Patrick.

Rally with Paul Hodes and Gov. John Lynch

2006-11-02T02:58:00.000-05:00

Friday, November 3
10:15 AM

The Hunt Building
6 Main Street
Nashua, New Hampshire

Late-Night Photos

2006-11-02T02:28:00.000-05:00

Field director Patrick doesn't like it when people leave their things on his desk, which is centrally located and close to the fridge, so people do tend to leave things there. Dana demonstrated his deep affection for Patrick by bringing him the gift of all these nice cups and bottles. (Pat: "Don't leave all these coffe cups on my desk!" Dana: "They're not coffee cups, Patrick. They're tea cups.")

Press secretary Reid starts to debrief on his day, starts up the stairs, remembers something else, and finishes the story of his day from the stairs.

Dana gives Reid his rapt attention.

Photoblogging: Campaign Office

2006-11-02T02:01:00.000-05:00

Back at the office, Charlie and Kaili phonebank.

I spent a couple hours this evening phonebanking, and got a few good responses. I also got royally yelled at by a crotchety old man who thinks that political calling is un-American and destroys democracy and that I should get a real job (Me: "Actually, sir, I'm a volunteer.") and also, for some reason, an education. Probably my favorite call, though, was to the woman who when I asked how she was doing, said, somewhat dubiously, that she was fine. When I said something like "great," she kind of gasped and said "you're a real person!" She'd gotten so many robocalls that she assumed that's what I was. It actually kind of affirmed my desire to start calls by saying "My name is Laura and I'm a real live person volunteering for the Paul Hodes for Congress campaign."

If you like slight, semi-pretty preppy boys, deputy campaign manager Luke is really fairly handsome. Here he makes himself look bizarre and accusatory. I figure he brought it on himself and can just live with having it posted.

Jane is the scheduler. She's not really blurry in real life.

Dave is the finance director. In the foreground is his tiki god. I'm not sure I fully comprehend the set of practices with regard to the tiki god, but it seems in some way to be responsible for the campaign's financial status.

Dana is the campaign manager. I can't think how to elaborate on that.

Emily also lives in this area of the office, but for various reasons the pictures I took of her are not very usable.

Canvassing with Toby

2006-11-02T01:45:00.000-05:00

This afternoon I did some canvassing with Toby, pictured here. Mostly people aren't home in the middle of the afternoon and you leave literature, but there was one amazing encounter. We split up a street and I went off to do my houses while Toby crossed over to a woman mowing her lawn. I finished my houses and they were still talking, so I went over. It turns out that the woman had begun the conversation by saying that she was a Republican and a born-again Christian and liked George Bush because she thought he was a good Christian. But Toby got her talking and the more they talked, the more her dissatisfaction with the state of the country came out. They covered the economy, health care, abortion, congressional pay raises and the minimum wage. And as we left her, she was saying she would vote for Paul Hodes. It was wonderful - so few people really want to talk about the issues like that, let alone people who enter the conversation assuming they prefer the other party. And talking people around like that? Just wow. It really makes you feel good about what you're doing.

In other Toby news, I apparently look like a cradle robber. When we stopped for lunch, the hostess at the restaurant asked if we were on our honeymoon. Random!

Telegraph Endorses Paul Hodes

2006-11-02T01:28:00.000-05:00

Adding its voice to the Concord Monitor, Keene Sentinel, and Valley News, the Nashua Telegraph endorsed Paul Hodes. Notably, the Telegraph endorsed Bass in 2004.

The endorsement says

We recommend Hodes over the Republican incumbent not only for his positions – thoughtful and realistic – but also for his ability and willingness to present his ideas in a clear, straightforward and unflinching manner.

And

There are several reasons we have changed our position on these two candidates this time around. In part, we think Hodes has grown considerably as a candidate since the last time we saw him, and believe he has honed the skills necessary to be an effective legislator in Washington.

At the same, we believe that in recent years, Bass has let the 2nd District down in one of the most basic duties of a member of the House of Representatives: holding the two other branches of government accountable, especially the executive branch.

A Busy Day in NH-02 - And a Good One for Hodes

2006-10-31T00:50:00.000-05:00

It's hard to even know where to start today. First off, there's a new poll from Majority Watch (click on the NH dot to see details) that shows Hodes in the lead with 50% to Bass' 47%. This poll has a low margin of error at +/- 3.11%, and has 988 respondents - a large number obtainable because it was an automated poll. Opinions differ on automated polls, but they don't seem to be much worse than other public polling. The details of the poll look especially good for Hodes, with his support firmer than Bass' and Democratic voter motivation higher than Republican.

I'm still not 100% sold on polling in general, but seeing a Hodes lead on the poll with the largest sample and lowest margin of error I've seen yet is nice.

Second, let's talk about the fact that the Cook Report changed NH-02 from "lean Republican" to "toss up." This is huge. As he lays out informally but cogently in this comment thread at Daily Kos, Charlie Cook is a careful prognosticator, and one who

decided many years ago to have a policy that is almost iron-clad, not to put un-indicted incumbents worse than Toss Up.

So toss up is the most Hodes-favorable category possible without Charlie Bass getting indicted for something. (Thanks to Yankee Doodler for the catch.)

Third, not only has the DCCC come close to matching the NRCC's buy on WMUR, I hear they've gone into the Boston tv market. Still waiting for an FEC filing on that to be able to give details, but it sounds pretty good. Piggybacking on that, the SEIU has added $23k to their earlier radio ad buy in support of Hodes - I heard the ad, which is about healthcare, today and it sounded effective.

Finally, there's a new sign up in Concord at least. Placed strategically next to signs for Republican incumbent Charlie Bass (which say, simply "BASS"), it says "He voted for torture." Oh, and there's an arrow pointing to the Bass sign.

The sign says it's paid for by "People Against Torture." The only information I can find about a group by that name is here, but that focuses on Kenya, so I'm not sure it's the same group. Notice, though, that the sign could be put next to the sign of any incumbent who had voted for a number of measures effectively allowing torture. It's kind of brilliant, really. Has anyone else seen these elsewhere in this district, or in other districts applied to other candidates?

Paul Hodes and the Coming Ad Battle

2006-10-27T21:46:00.000-04:00

NHPR has a story on the NRCC ad buy against Paul Hodes, noting also that today, the DCCC answered with a buy of around $300,000. NHPR previews the NRCC ad, which is pretty standard-issue fare: "Liberal Paul Hodes wants to raise taxes." Well, yes, for the very very wealthiest people - those making several hundred thousand dollars a year or more. Very few families would see their taxes go up, and he supports tax credits for things like college - things that ordinary working people, rather than the wealthiest, worry about.

But it's not just about taxes, it's about the sneering tone on the word "liberal." As it happens, Paul has a ready answer for that. Though his stump speech changes from event to event, he often quotes his hero, John F. Kennedy, from his September, 1960 speech accepting the nomination of the Liberal Party:

What do our opponents mean when they apply to us the label "Liberal?" If by "Liberal" they mean, as they want people to believe, someone who is soft in his policies abroad, who is against local government, and who is unconcerned with the taxpayer's dollar, then the record of this party and its members demonstrate that we are not that kind of "Liberal." But if by a "Liberal" they mean someone who looks ahead and not behind, someone who welcomes new ideas without rigid reactions, someone who cares about the welfare of the people -- their health, their housing, their schools, their jobs, their civil rights, and their civil liberties -- someone who believes we can break through the stalemate and suspicions that grip us in our policies abroad, if that is what they mean by a "Liberal," then I'm proud to say I'm a "Liberal."

Paul, too, is proud of that name and those ideals. The NRCC would have us think that's shameful, but read that passage, consider what that kind of leadership would mean, and consider too what a change it would be from our current leadership. After that, the choice for Paul Hodes shouldn't be difficult.

Huge NRCC Ad Blitz Coming

2006-10-26T21:06:00.000-04:00

The NRCC has made a $365,585 ad buy against Paul Hodes. Remember how last night I said things were going to get "not just negative but dirty"? This would represent an enormous increase in the amount of dirt, both because it's an enormous increase in the money devoted to dirt, and because frankly, I don't think Charlie Bass is as nice and clean a guy as he likes to market himself as being, but the NRCC is nastier than he is. That's what they do, and they're doing it here because they know they are on the path to losing this election.

So just remember to check what you hear, because it comes out of desperation and a lot of it is going to be anywhere from unfair to false. And start your checking here: Paul Hodes is a good man. He is a responsible, careful, knowledgeable political thinker who will do responsible, careful, knowledgeable legislation. He will represent the people of New Hampshire faithfully and well, and treat the role of member of Congress with the respect it deserves.

Bass Brings in Bigger Guns

2006-10-26T02:36:00.000-04:00

According to the Union Leader, Bob Stevenson, the new spokesman that has just appeared for the Bass campaign (number three, after Scott Tranchemontagne and Lindsay Jackson)

has been through the political wars as a communications director for former New Hampshire Sen. Warren Rudman, Sen. Pete Domenici and most recently, Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist.

His task?

To do opposition research and communicate the "contrast" between the two candidates.

In case you're wondering, that means "to go not just negative but dirty." So watch for it. The avalanche of dirt and slime is coming.

Meanwhile, the Union Leader gets in a howler when it claims

So far, this race has been all about Bass. He's focused on himself, stressing in campaign stops and television advertising that he is an independent voice.

Is that what he was doing in those two ads that featured Hodes more prominently than they did Bass? You really could've fooled me on that one.

Hodes and Bass Debate

2006-10-26T01:17:00.000-04:00

I'm going to shock all of y'all and say that Paul Hodes won tonight's televised debate. (As Yankee Doodler says in his post on the debate, "Well, what did you think I would say?") But I do believe this to be whatever passes for objectively true, as measured by the number of times Charlie Bass seemed at a loss for words and the number of occasions on which he used a significant amount of his time to return to a previous question.

This flusteredness is put into context by the Evans-Novak Political Report, which says (passages both bolded and italicized are emphasized by me; plain bold appears in the original)

New Hampshire-2: Here's a surprise. No one expected Rep. Charlie Bass (R) to fall behind late in the game, but that's where he is. Bass appears to have been caught off his guard. He has been outraised by his repeat opponent, Paul Hodes, whom he defeated by 20 points in 2004. Republicans complain about Bass's lacksidaisical staffers and discuss the possible loss of his Northern New Hampshire seat. Bass's get-out-the-vote effort is extremely disorganized. He is also upsetting his base with ads that brought his pro-abortion stance into the race and that distance himself from the Republican Party.

It is unclear whether Bass can be saved in time. He just started a huge phone drive Tuesday to save his seat, and some Republicans remain hopeful that he can bounce back by November 7. Leaning Democratic Takeover.

Bass is running a sloppy effort, and that's being remarked on by his own partisans. Whether he's sloppy because he's been knocked off his game by Hodes' challenge, or whether he never had any game to begin with and is currently flustered because he never expected to get in trouble for that, his petulant, disorganized debate performance is clearly indicative of a broader or deeper phenomenon.

In other debate news, Yankee Doodler deserves a major hat tip for providing the material for Hodes' first question to Bass, on why Bass was so aggressive in demanding accountability for the successful military action in Kosovo, only to be a consistent yes-man for Bush's failed Iraq policy. It is simply amazing the impact a set of really very small blogs have had on this race. We all know, of course, that much of that impact wouldn't have happened without an interested, illicitly participatory Bass staff, but I think that the degree to which the Hodes campaign has been attentive and responsive, making judicious use of what we provide without playing to it overly much, has been somewhat underestimated. So huge credit to Yankee Doodler for the find, and credit also to the Hodes campaign for seeing it for what it was and using it to effect.

Bass on Social Security, Review with Hodes Counterpoint

2006-10-24T16:27:00.000-04:00

Back in August, I posted on Charles Bass' record with regard to Social Security. Short version: He's a long-time advocate of privatization. And that is still a relevant issue, with President Bush once again affirming his intention to phase out Social Security. If Charlie Bass is in Congress in the new year, he will be another vote in support of Bush and against Social Security.

Charlie Bass is, after all, someone who has signed onto letters urging privatization, someone who has voted to use Social Security money for other purposes, including tax cuts for the wealthy, someone who has sworn to work with and for George W. Bush in "reforming" (which is to say, privatizing) Social Security. This is not someone who believes in the idea of a safety net for America's elderly. Then again, this is not someone who needs a safety net: He's a multimillionaire, and apparently not one of the ones who is enough in touch with ordinary, working people to understand - or care - about the necessity of having income that doesn't evaporate if the stock market drops.

In addition to my post on Bass and social security, look at Yankee Doodler's follow-up.

Meanwhile, Paul Hodes today swore never to support privatization.

“Our seniors deserve better treatment than cuts to their guaranteed benefits and huge gaps in drug coverage,” Hodes said. “I will never support privatizing Social Security, and when I get to Congress I’ll make fixing Medicare Part D a top priority. It’s unbelievable that our Congress, and our Congressman, agreed to a bill that gives the drug companies everything they want while seniors get only partial coverage and financial headaches. It’s time we had a Congressman who will stand up to the drug lobby and put our seniors first.”

Bass Gets C+ on Veterans' Issues

2006-10-24T15:24:00.000-04:00

The Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America (IAVA), a non-partisan group, has produced a scorecard on legislation affecting veterans.

To calculate the Ratings, IAVA reviewed all legislation voted on in the Congress since September 11, 2001. For each piece of legislation that affected troops, veterans or military families, IAVA took a position either in support of, or in opposition to its passage. The letter grades were derived, using the scales below, from the percentage of times that each legislator's vote matched the official IAVA stance.

The result? Charlie Bass, like many in his party, may talk a good game about supporting veterans, but when it comes to the actual legislation, he doesn't do such a good job, receiving a C+.

Concord Monitor Endorses Paul Hodes

2006-10-22T16:11:00.000-04:00

The Monitor, in an endorsement focusing on the Iraq war, indicts Bass' unwillingness or inability to question the course of the war:

Indeed it doesn't matter today that Charlie Bass voted to authorize the war in Iraq, or even that he remained initially optimistic about the potential for a desirable outcome. What matters is that 3½ years after the U.S. invasion, at a time when even some of the most hawkish proponents of remaking Iraq see that events have spun out of control, Bass remains a bystander in the corridors of power.

The endorsement concludes that

Of course, Hodes cannot single-handedly change U.S. foreign policy; only the president can do that. But Hodes would bring to Washington much-needed skepticism: a quality that's been lacking from the Republican majorities in the House and Senate. A similar eagerness to ask questions will be vital when the next Congress examines the administration's tax policies and education policy, particularly the No Child Left Behind law.

Because of its mix of liberal and conservative residents, the 2nd District is not an easy one to represent. If rewarded with the voters' trust, Hodes had better make sure his skepticism extends to both parties' agendas. It's a balancing act that in years past Bass managed to pull off.

Unfortunately, when it came to Iraq, he lost his balance. Hodes deserves the chance to try to do better.

I would, of course, argue that these points are applicable to many more issues than just Iraq - as the single sentence mentioning taxes and education hints at - but the Monitor's editors clearly have come to understand, at least partially, the degree to which Bass has failed in his jobs of oversight, of questioning, of actively seeking the best policies for this country. Paul Hodes says that the job of Congressman requires being "tough and smart and fearless." Charles Bass has abdicated all of those responsibilities, and it is time that this district is represented by someone who understands and is committed to them.

Nashua Rally with John Kerry Cancelled

2006-10-20T17:20:00.000-04:00

From the Hodes campaign:

Out of respect for the family and colleagues of Officer Briggs, and for his service to the State of New Hampshire, the rally and canvass originally scheduled for tomorrow (Saturday) morning at 11:00 AM with Sen. John Kerry and Paul Hodes has been cancelled.

Hodes Campaign Mailer Makes a Splash

2006-10-19T19:55:00.000-04:00

(Re: The title - I'm really sorry, I couldn't help myself.)

Anyway, this mail piece from the Hodes campaign has not struck the fancy of New Hampshire newspapers. Mike Pride at the Monitor says it was a mistake, that it will detract from the perceived seriousness of Hodes' campaign, that it looks like a cheap shot. John DiStaso in the Union Leader cites Pride's dislike of the piece as evidence that it must have "backfired."

But on what evidence do they judge the piece? By what standard of success? So far, all we've got is that Mike Pride doesn't like it and John DiStaso thinks that's evidence of something.

Anything we can say about the effectiveness of this piece will be anecdotal or speculative: I know someone who liked it - you know someone who was offended. Research suggests X about the general effectiveness of direct mail, but we can only guess about this piece.

So, where is the evidence? A piece like this won't have the direct measurability of a fundraising mailing, where you can track how much money comes in as a result. But presumably the company that put it together is one that has learned the lessons available from such fundraising direct mail. (Contrary to Pride's imagining of "the campaign people putting this ad together. They probably chortled to themselves about their cleverness," I believe this piece was in fact done by direct mail professionals.)

Pride feels that Hodes needs to appear serious - but polls suggest that Hodes is in need of greater name recognition, and a memorable mail piece might help with that.

How can a piece be memorable? The Altosa Group, a research and marketing firm, says (PDF)

Be visual.
Two-thirds of newspaper readers only look at pictures and headlines. A message buried in the text won't get read! Pictures and headlines must carry your entire message. Let the text support that message.

This piece is highly visual - indeed, that seems to be a large part of Pride's problem with it. But perhaps its visual nature can help it cut through the American consumer's well-developed ability to ignore information - especially advertising. In The Tipping Point, Malcolm Gladwell writes that the "stickiness factor" is necessary for successful advertising:

Reaching the consumer with the message is not the hard part of direct marketing. What is difficult is getting consumers to stop, read the advertisement, remember it, and then act on it. (Page 93)

This means that maybe the point is not that Mike Pride fears that this mailer was a bad move for Hodes. Maybe the point is that he looked at it, and decided to write about it. That in itself is a measure of effectiveness. NH-02 Progressive has another measure of effectiveness: His own brother. You really have to read the whole post, which is excellent, but in brief

My brother would have got to the polls because he hated Bush, and because I would have hounded him for two years if he didn't. But he wasn't sure about this Hodes guy. Too stuffy, he thought. Maybe a little full of himself.

I told him I met Hodes a couple of times, and that was not how he was at all in person. But he pointed to the TV ads. Stiff, he said. I'll vote for him, but he's stiff.

Well, now my brother has discovered that he has something in common with Hodes: a sense of humor. Despite the draining years Bush and Bass have put us through, we can still laugh.

As I said above, the effectiveness of this particular piece at getting votes is an open question. But it sure has gotten attention, and, as Gladwell notes, in advertising, that is one of the most difficult tasks.

Rally and Canvass This Saturday with John Kerry

2006-10-18T13:08:00.000-04:00

RALLY WITH PAUL HODES AND JOHN KERRY (D-MA)

Where: Nashua City Hall (229 Main Street)
When: 11:00, Saturday October 21
Contact: Patrick (phone 603 223 2006)

Clearly everyone should be there.

Will Bass Get Bailed Out?

2006-10-18T00:16:00.000-04:00

As I noted on Sunday, and GraniteProf elaborated on somewhat on Monday, the last several polls released have Charlie Bass below 50%, which is considered the danger line for an incumbent.

You might expect the national party to come to his aid, bail him out by attacking Paul Hodes. And it wouldn't be surprising if they do - after all, given the way New Hampshire has been trending Democratic over the past 10-15 years, once the Republicans lose this seat, it's not too likely they'll get it back for a good long time. So it would be in their interest to try to save the seat if they possibly can, rather than focusing on ones they'll be able to get back given a slightly more Republican-friendly national environment in 2 or 4 years.

The National Republican Congressional Committee has been spending a lot of money trying to help a lot of different Republican incumbents (warning: link takes a long time to load). For instance, Swing State Project reports today that the NRCC is putting $400,000 into Idaho's first district, which in 2004 went 70% for Bush. This is part of a pattern in which Republicans are playing defense in districts that shouldn't be remotely competitive, rather than the ones that, six months ago, you would have expected them to have to work to defend, never mind the pick-up opportunities you'd have figured they'd have.

So what does it mean when the NRCC doesn't spend in a district like NH-02, which should be competitive? Despite spending $21,000 to survey the second district back on August 21, the NRCC has not yet spent any money on advertising or mailing to help bail Bass out. They may yet - and if they do, it'll get dirty in a hurry - but so far, nothing. Maybe they didn't like what that survey told them. Have they given up on winning this one? We won't know until about November 6, but right now it seems like a significant possibility.

Who is Paying Lindsay Jackson's Salary?

2006-10-17T18:25:00.000-04:00

Those who have been following the Congressional race between Paul Hodes and Charles Bass will by now be familiar with Bass' campaign spokeswoman, Lindsay Jackson. She's regularly on WMUR and in New Hampshire papers speaking for the campaign.

For the campaign.

So it's an interesting thing that Ms. Jackson, whose regular job is as Bass' press secretary in his Congressional office in Washington, DC, is apparently not being paid by the campaign. The latest FEC filings show her receiving two disbursements from the campaign: One on 9/15 in the amount of $852.08 for airfare/car rental/gas, and one on 9/29 in the amount of $119.80 for gas/parking/photo development. But there is no salary listed for her in the campaign filing, although she is clearly working hard for Bass, spinning away.

This lack of salary for someone whose role has shifted from DC office to campaign staff is particularly interesting in light of a Mother Jones story detailing how NH-01's Jeb Bradley apparently kept his chief of staff on full, or nearly full, pay from his House office while she ran his 2004 campaign. Add this behavior from New Hampshire's other Congressman to the fact that we know that someone in Bass' House office was engaging in campaign activities when he shouldn't have been and, well, you have to wonder. I'm not accusing Bass of having his House press secretary working on his campaign while on the government payroll, I'm just saying that, based on appearances, this arrangement is open to question and I'm curious to hear more about it.

Is Lindsay Jackson continuing to collect a government paycheck? If so, is it her usual full pay, or a reduction? If a reduction, how much? Why is the campaign not paying her when she is clearly doing campaign work?

I think we as taxpayers and voters deserve an explanation.

Bass the Backbencher

2006-10-17T17:58:00.000-04:00

The last appearance Tad Furtado, aka IndyNH, made here at Blue Granite was not to respond to polling numbers. It was to respond to a post arguing that Charlie Bass is not a leader in Washington. I pointed to the fact that Bass does not chair any subcommittees, while others who have served the same number of terms or even fewer do hold subcommittee chairs. IndyTad replied with an essay-length comment beginning

People are going to read this blog from me and think that I am a Bass supporter, but I am really not.

He went on to spend over 350 words laying out the exact line of Bass' first tv ad of this campaign - Bass is just too principled for things like that. You think maybe I struck a nerve?

Over at NH-02 Progressive, Keener has a post about his recent conversation with Bass' 1996 opponent Arnie Arnesen, in which she makes a point similar to the one I made about Bass' lack of leadership. Keener's "rough approximation" of Arnesen's characterization of Bass is

Back-bencher, Charlie the back bencher? Let me tell you something. There aren't enough benches for Charlie to hide under. First sign of trouble and that wimp curls up like a baby and hides under his chair...he never take risks without permission from leadership; he calls it courage, I call it calculating and disingenuous.

--snip--

Sadly, this guy is so two-faced even the REPUBLICANS don't trust him -- tolerate is as far as the emotion goes.

This view of Bass is echoed, albeit slightly more diplomatically, in a Valley News report of Bass' "Sandernistas" comment:

Sanders' campaign spokesman, Jeff Weaver, yesterday said Bass may have been “upset” by losing a recent skirmish with Sanders over a wilderness bill and said of the New Hampshire Republican, “the truth is he's kind of a backbencher down in Washington who doesn't get a lot of attention or play a leadership role.”

That's who he is. That's who's representing this district. A backbencher who gets petulant and insulting when he loses a skirmish, and insults not just the person he lost to but all of his supporters, working people, and the people of an entire borough of New York City. Does it make you proud? Contrast when Paul Hodes was asked the other night in Hanover what difference he could make as a freshman Congressman. He said

I'm not a shy person - I'll speak up. I will be tough and smart and fearless in relation to my party and anyone else.